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Drastic changes in media ahead: PackerThursday November 23, 11:18 PM

James Packer forecasts the media landscape in Australia will change dramatically in the next 15 years as technology steers the industry into a new age.The chief executive of Publishing and Broadcasting Ltd (PBL) was among four of Australia's principal media leaders, also including Fairfax chief David Kirk, ABC managing director Mark Scott, and Foxtel head Kim Williams, speaking at the Oxford Business Alumni's annual forum in Sydney.

In their discussion, on the theme The Future of Australia's Media Industry, Mr Packer said today's booming mass media tools were unheard of in the early 1990s and the scene in the 2020s would be just as different."If you look back 15 years ago, there were virtually no mobile phones, no internet, no Pay TV and they were very hard to foresee," he said."I think 15 years from now the change is going to be as dramatic as it has been in the last 15 years." Mr Kirk, whose company publishes The Sydney Morning Herald, The Australian Financial Review and the Sun Herald, said the newspaper industry would live through developments in technology and thrive on the proliferation of online news."Absolutely it will survive ... but we have to make adjustments to find new products to offset some of these changes," Mr Kirk said.

He said secure display advertising and steady circulation ensured newspapers were in a strong position, but quality content was more important than the medium through which it was delivered.Mr Kirk said while consumers could determine news and programming on pay TV and the internet, and even generate their own content, readers still demanded informed and quality views and news in a convenient and well presented form."There is absolutely no doubt newspapers will have to provide greater quality. We cannot dumb down the product," he said."I firmly believe there is a real demand for high class editing."People do want an easy and comprehensive way of getting their news."Mr Scott agreed that quality content would play a bigger role in consumers' choice than technology.But he said the internet generation who "don't want to be broadcast at, they want to write their own news, contribute" will be the biggest consumer force in the next 15 years."Fifteen-year-olds today ... they are the dominant media consumers," he said."They're used to having it where they want it and when they want it and want to contribute to it. "That's a big shift that all media organisations are going to have to come to terms with."He said technology helped the ABC fulfil its charter to deliver Australian content.He cited the two million ABC podcasts downloaded around the country each month which, he said, made the national broadcaster "probably" the leading provider of podcast material in the world.Twenty-five new ABC television programs next year will also be available from video on-demand download, he said.